An official from the NCM indicates that May 2-3 has been pinpointed as the ‘peak’ period of the situation.
As the UAE gears up for challenging weather conditions starting Wednesday, an expert assures that the upcoming scenario won’t mirror the rainfall experienced on April 16.
In the days ahead, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in scattered areas, occasionally accompanied by lightning, thunder, and even hail, according to Dr. Ahmed Habib, a weather specialist at the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).
“We witnessed hail in the Al Shoaib area on Sunday, north of Al Ain, and there’s a possibility of hail over eastern areas, extending to some internal and western areas,” Dr. Habib noted.
As residents brace for unsettled weather and rainfall on May 2, Dr. Habib emphasized that May 2-3 is identified as the ‘peak’ of the situation.
“This won’t be a repeat of the last situation. It will be entirely different. Cloud formation will occur in the south of Abu Dhabi in the Al Dhafra area, gradually moving towards internal parts like Al Ain. However, May 3 will be the ‘peak’ of the situation,” he added.
According to forecasts from the Meteorological Department, adverse weather is expected to commence from the west by Wednesday night, spreading across most areas of the country on Thursday, particularly focusing on western, coastal, and some eastern regions. Additionally, temperatures are anticipated to drop significantly.
“In the days leading up to Wednesday, we’ll experience increased humidity in eastern areas due to an extension of low pressure from the East, resulting in rising surface temperatures. Expect convective cloud formation primarily during the daytime, especially in the East, with clouds gradually moving inland, including Dubai and Sharjah,” Dr. Habib explained.
Highlighting potential improvements in the weather, he stated, “By Friday-Saturday, the low pressure will gradually move towards the south, leading to a gradual decrease in cloud cover and bringing light to moderate rain in general.
Local and external factors play a significant role in shaping weather patterns and conditions.
The influence will also spread eastward from Abu Dhabi due to local factors. However, come Wednesday night, there’s another scenario on the horizon.
Habib pointed out that the country will experience the impact of a surface low-pressure extension from the Red Sea, accompanied by humid southeasterly winds.
“A similar extension of low pressure in the upper atmosphere from the north will also affect the conditions.” He explained that as a result, clouds will move from Saudi Arabia towards the UAE, initiating unstable weather conditions ‘late Wednesday night’.
“These clouds will transform into convective formations, resulting in rainfall ranging from moderate to heavy. By Thursday, these clouds will move westward, bringing moderate to heavy showers to Abu Dhabi, before advancing further northward towards Dubai and Sharjah,” he further explained.
Climate crisis?
When asked whether the record-breaking rainfall on April 16, which caused widespread disruption in the country, was partially influenced by the climate crisis, the experienced weatherman said, “The cause of the rainfall on that particular day, and whether it was influenced by global warming, is still under investigation and research.”
In less than 24 hours, from April 15 to 16, the country experienced its heaviest rainfall since records began 75 years ago.
During this time, the UAE received 6.04 billion cubic meters of rainfall, whereas it typically receives around 6.7 billion cubic meters annually.
With rainfall exceeding 100mm in a single day in many areas, the UAE grappled with unprecedented flooding that affected roads, homes, and essential infrastructure. Over four stations recorded over 200mm of rain on that day.
Habib added, “We are studying data from the past 30-35 years to gain insights. Various factors need thorough examination to understand the underlying reasons and the role of global warming in contributing to such intense rainfall events.”